Are Prescription-only Precursor Control Laws a Prescription to Lower the Social Costs of Methamphetamine?

Background: In 2010, Mississippi became the second state to require a prescription to purchase pseudoephedrine-based medications. Proponents of “prescription-only” laws argue that they are necessary to disrupt methamphetamine markets, but critics note the costs to legal consumers of cold medications may offset some of the laws’ intended benefits. Objective: We evaluated the effect of prescription-only restrictions for methamphetamine precursors on state-level methamphetamine lab seizures and methamphetamine prices. Methods: We used a synthetic control approach to create a control state comparable to Mississippi and then used permutation testing to determine if the resulting difference was statistically significant. Results: We found that Mississippi’s prescription-only law removed 2,291 small methamphetamine labs in the two years after enactment, which represents a 65% reduction in small labs relative to the synthetic counterfactual. We found no evidence that the law impacted methamphetamine prices. Conclusion: We conclude that while prescription-only laws can reduce the number of domestic small methamphetamine labs in operation, methamphetamine use is not likely to be materially impacted as production may shift out of state. ∗Cunningham: Department of Economics, Baylor University, Waco, TX. Finlay: Department of Economics, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA. Stoecker: Department of Global Health Systems and Development, Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, LA.We thank the National Science Foundation (award SMA-1004569), the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (award 70509), and the Tulane Research Enhancement Fund for support.